Health 12:24 25/10/2014

Ebola epidemic will explode by mid-December and kill tens of thousands of people, scientists warn

The Ebola epidemic devastating parts of West Africa will have killed tens of thousands of people by the middle of December unless urgent action is taken.

In a report published on October 24, scientists warn the window of opportunity to control the outbreak is 'rapidly closing,' the Daily Mail reports.

As a result, there could be 'calamitous repercussions,' unless international efforts to control the disease are substantially increased.

A team of U.S. researchers used mathematical modelling to predict infection rates in Liberia's most populated county, Montserrado.

They calculated that without extra help, as many as 171,000 people could succumb to Ebola by December 15, representing 12 per cent of an overall population of some 1.38 million.

In Montserrado alone, there could be more than 90,000 deaths by that time, many of them unreported.

A single infected individual could pass on the infection to an average of 2.49 people in Montserrado, the researchers calculated.

Lead researcher Professor Alison Galvani, from the School of Public Health at Yale University, said: 'Our predictions highlight the rapidly closing window of opportunity for controlling the outbreak and averting a catastrophic toll of new Ebola cases and deaths in the coming months.

'Although we might still be within the midst of what will ultimately be viewed as the early phase of the current outbreak, the possibility of averting calamitous repercussions from an initially delayed and insufficient response is quickly eroding.'

The news comes as the World Health Organization's emergency committee decided screening passengers for Ebola may have a 'limited effect' in stopping the spread of the virus.

The committee warned that 'resource demands may be significant' when screening incoming passengers, but that it is up to individual Governments to decide whether the measure is necessary.

Passengers are already screened as they leave Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.

Writing in the journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases, the researchers warned some 97,940 cases of the disease could be averted if the international community stepped up control measures immediately, starting from October 31, according to their model.

This would require more Ebola treatment beds, a five-fold increase in the speed at which new cases are detected, and the allocation of protective kits to households of patients awaiting admission to clinics.

At best, just over 53,957 cases could be prevented if interventions are delayed until November 15, said the researchers. 



Source Panorama.am
Share |
Տեքստում սխալ կամ վրիպակ նկատելու դեպքում, ուղարկեք խմբագրին հաղորդագրություն` նշելով տվյալ սխալը, այնուհետև սեղմելով Ctrl-Enter:

Newsfeed

17:05
Prosecutor's Office asked to charge Pashinyan for land handover to Azerbaijan
The Prosecutor General’s Office has been asked to bring criminal charges against Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for the handover...
16:45
EU monitors in Armenia host Finland's ambassador to South Caucasus
The EU Mission in Armenia (EUMA) on Thursday hosted Finland's Ambassador to South Caucasus Kirsti Narinen and Honorary Consul Timothy...
16:35
Seven arrested after jeering at Pashinyan's wife
Seven people have been detained following an incident involving Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s spouse, Anna Hakobyan....
16:14
ZCMC slips to third in list of Armenia's top taxpayers
The State Revenue Committee (SRC) on Thursday published data on taxes and fees paid by Armenia's 1,000 largest taxpayers in January-March...
15:36
Russia expects Pashinyan to attend EAEU summit in May
Russia expects Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to participate in the EAEU summit in Moscow in May, Russian Deputy Prime Minister...
15:07
Protesters rally outside Turkish Consulate in Beverly Hills on Armenian Genocide anniversary
On Wednesday, April 24, hundreds of protesters gathered outside the Turkish Consulate on Wilshire Boulevard in Beverly Hills to remember the...
14:35
Anti-Pashinyan protests held in Yerevan
Spontaneous protests against the decision of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government to hand over four border...
14:14
Politician: Incident involving Pashinyan's wife confirms 'explosive' situation in Armenia
The latest incident involving Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's wife, Anna Hakobyan, indicates that the situation in Armenia is...
13:34
Opposition MP: Handover of 'enclaves' to Azerbaijan will paralyze Armenia
Armenian opposition MP Tigran Abrahamyan warns that the surrender of four “enclaves” to Azerbaijan will completely paralyze Armenia....
12:50
Rep. Schiff commemorates Armenian Genocide anniversary
U.S. Representative Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Vice Chair of the Congressional Armenian Caucus, released the following statement to...
12:35
Protesters block Yerevan-Gyumri highway
People in Armenia's Shirak Province on Thursday blocked the Yerevan-Gyumri highway in protest against the Armenian government’s...
12:05
School students go on strike in Armenia's Tavush
School students in Baghanis, a border village in Armenia’s Tavush Province, walked out of classes on Thursday to protest against the...
11:35
Azerbaijan removes coat of arms from Artsakh government building
A video circulating on social media shows Azerbaijani occupants removing Artsakh’s coat of arms and Armenian inscriptions from the Artsakh...
11:15
USAID chief pays tribute to Armenian Genocide victims
USAID Administrator Samantha Power commemorated the Armenian Genocide victims on the 109th anniversary of the tragedy marked on Wednesday....
11:00
42 Armenians missing after Azeri attack on Nagorno-Karabakh, report says
A total of 42 Armenians, including 12 civilians, went missing following Azerbaijan’s military takeover...
17:05
Political analyst: Pashinyan has long lost his status as Armenian PM
Nikol Pashinyan has long ceased to be Armenia’s prime minister, becoming Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's “ambassador”...
16:34
Catholicos Karekin II commemorates Armenian Genocide victims
His Holiness Karekin II, Supreme Patriarch and Catholicos of All Armenians, accompanied by the members of the Brotherhood of the Mother See of...
15:49
Support for Armenian prisoners held illegally in Baku prison: March to Tsitsernakaberd
This year, on the 109th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide, banners could be seen at the top of Tsitsernakaberd, reading, "Free Armenian...
15:19
Biden pays tribute to Armenian Genocide victims
U.S. President Joe Biden commemorated the 109th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide in a statement on Wednesday. The full...
15:05
Greek president marks Armenian Genocide anniversary
Acknowledgement and vigilance is required for the victims of the Armenian Genocide, Greek President Katerina Sakellaropoulou said in a statement...
14:36
'Nikol, murderer'. Pashinyan's wife booed at Tsitsernakaberd
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's spouse, Anna Hakobyan, was booed while visiting the Tsitsernakaberd Memorial Complex in Yerevan to...
14:15
U.S. State Department report reveals torture, arbitrary detentions in Armenia
The U.S. Department of State has released its annual 2023 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices, saying significant human rights issues in...
13:35
Genocide threat still present in the world – Foreign Ministry
The Armenian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the 109th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide marked on April 24. The full statement is...
13:25
Armenia’s decision on CSTO membership its sovereign choice, chief says
The choice of Armenia’s authorities to remain in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) or leave it will be the...
13:11
'A complete lack of transparency': Ruben Vardanyan's son talks about his detention in Baku
CNN's Christiane Amanpour speaks with David Vardanyan, son of Ruben Vardanyan, the former leader of the Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh)...
12:46
Macron commemorates Armenian Genocide anniversary
French President Emmanuel Macron has marked the 109th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire. “Today, France...
12:27
LIVE: March to Tsitsernakabert Memorial on Armenian Genocide anniversary
People have been marching to the Tsitsernakabert Memorial Complex in Yerevan since early Wednesday morning to commemorate the 109th anniversary...
12:00
Serzh Sargsyan: Armenian leaders trying to send Armenian Genocide into oblivion
Third Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan issued a message on the 109th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide commemorated on April 24. His full...
11:45
What will Pashinyan do next, demolish the Genocide Museum?
By Harut Sassounian TheCaliforniaCourier.com Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his equally incompetent underlings have been making for...
11:33
Freedom House concerned by reports of police violence in Armenia
Freedom House has expressed concern over mounting reports of police violence in Armenia. “We urge Armenian authorities to investigate...

Follow us and get updates!

Most popular articles

{"core.blocks.header.spell_message1":"Selected mistake: ","core.blocks.header.spell_message2":"Send a message about the mistake?"}