Your trusted source

The Director of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies Richard Giragosian says he is sure both Armenia and Turkey will have economic benefits from opening the closed border. According to Mr. Giragosian diplomatic relations will be established after the border is opened. Find below Mr. Giragosian’s exclusive interview given to Panorama.am.

-Mr. Giragosian, do you think that the U.S. President Barack Obama will use the genocide world in his 24 April statement?

Despite the strong statements by the Obama campaign promising to recognize the Armenian genocide, recent developments suggest a shift in policy. Specifically, there is now a significance difference between Barrack Obama the candidate and Barrack Obama the president. In terms of US foreign policy, President Obama is challenged by three strategic needs: to improve US-Turkish relations, to encourage Turkey to cooperate with US plans for Iraq and Afghanistan, and to use Turkish influence in the Middle East.

Moreover, President Obama is under added pressure form Turkey, which is now arguing that this is “a sensitive time” for Turkish-Armenian relations, asserting that the current stage of diplomacy is “too delicate and fragile” for any move by the US on the Armenian genocide. Thus, I do not believe that President Obama will use the genocide word in his 24 April statement. But this does not mean that the US Congress will not recognize the genocide on its own.

- How do you treat Obama’s visit to Turkey? Does it mean anything? How will that visit influence on Armenia-Turkey relations?

The Obama visit to Turkey represents US recognition that Turkey is now struggling with its deepest and potentially most disruptive degree of change, with a profound reexamination of the very tenets of its national identity, driven by a combination of internal reforms and external challenges. And most recently, there has been an equally significant strategic reorientation involving Turkey’s role within the region and its future position in a broader international context. The depth and degree of change and redefinition in Turkey is also matched by a battle with itself, redefining itself and the very core of its identity.

- Do you have any expectations from the visit of Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan to Armenia? Will there be any developments?

Babacan’s possible visit to Armenia also reflects the fact that recent developments have bolstered Turkey’s position. For Turkey, this newly enhanced position stems from three key factors. First, Turkey’s position within the problematic European Union ascension process was only refreshed and refurbished during the January 2009 visit to Brussels by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The premier’s visit, his first in four years, reaffirmed EU ascension as a top priority for Turkey, demonstrated by the decision to form a new special ministry to manage with EU entrance talks and the move to launch a new Kurdish-language television station.

But the second factor contributing to greater Turkish weight goes beyond Ankara’s new pledges to “step up” reforms in human rights and democratization. More specifically, Turkey’s role as an “energy hub” for Europe was significantly enhanced in the wake of the recent Russian-Ukrainian dispute over natural gas transit. For the EU, the new imperative is to forge ahead with the $12-billion Nabucco gas pipeline project, which would transit Turkey and transport gas to Europe, overcoming Russian dominance of the region’s energy infrastructure.

But while Armenian expectations from the new American leadership remain very high, in many ways, Turkey has assumed an even more essential role for the United States. In fact, it is the set of Obama Administration’s stated policy priorities, topped by its withdrawal from Iraq and a planned expansion of operations in Afghanistan that serves as the third factor in enhancing Turkey’s strategic position. In addition, Ankara’s cooperation in both dealing with the post-Gaza conflict in the Middle East and for engaging Iran represents pressing needs for Washington.

- Do you think that the Armenian-Turkish closed border will be opened in 2009?

Despite the poor record of past initiatives, the potential benefits from even the most basic and rudimentary form of engagement are clear for each country. For Turkey, opening its closed border with Armenia would constitute a new strategic opportunity for galvanizing economic activity in the impoverished eastern regions of the country, which could play a key role in the economic stabilization of the already restive Kurdish-populated eastern regions and thus meet a significant national security imperative of countering the root causes of Kurdish terrorism and separatism with economic opportunity. Likewise, an open border with Turkey would offer Armenia not only a way to overcome its regional isolation and marginalization, but also a bridge to larger markets crucial for economic growth and development. In addition, the commercial and economic activity resulting from opening the Armenian-Turkish border would foster subsequent trade ties between the two countries that, in turn, would lead to more formal cooperation in the key areas of customs and border security. And with such a deepening of bilateral trade ties and cross-border cooperation, the establishment of diplomatic relations would undoubtedly follow.

Thus, the opening of the closed Armenian-Turkish border could not only bring about a crucial breakthrough in fostering trade links and economic relations, but may also serve as an impetus to bolster broader stability and security throughout the conflict-prone South Caucasus.