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Obama and Castro are master chess players, but Fidel has never lost a game in his life: the US is betting the government will be overthrown while the Castros are sure they will consolidate their position, Daniel Bruno, Buenos Aires based expert, told RT.

RT: Why in your opinion has Obama decided to resume dialogue with Cuba?

Daniel Bruno: The Obama administration remains fully committed to the overthrow of the Cuban government and the Russian government for that matter. Just look up ZunZuneo which is the Cuban twitter program as well as the hip-hop program that was promoted to foment discontent on the island just this year.

RT: Is there any possibility that there will be some changes anytime soon in Cuba due to recent conversations with the US?

DB: Cuba is not going to change. Cuba’s number one source of food is the USA in spite of the embargo, there was an exception for that. Cuba’s main source of income remains remittances sent from Cubans living abroad in exile. Its economy is based on barter with Venezuela, the trade of medical and educational professionals for oil followed by tourism, cigars, nickel, and pharmaceuticals. Cuba’s number one obstacle to economic development is its own policies. Even Fidel Castro has admitted that the Cuban economy does not function.

RT: How the situation will develop for Cuba now after the announcement of the thaw in its relations with Washington?

DB: There is going to be a lot of money to be made that is for sure, modernizing the Cuban infrastructure. But there is no foreign capital investment in Cuba at this time from any country. That is a result of Cuba’s internal blockade that it imposes on itself. Cuba has the best educated and the healthiest population in all of Latin America. But there is nothing for them to do except to leave the island because there is no economy there.

RT: Will anything change greatly in Cuban-US relation?

DB: It is not going to change because Obama cannot lift the embargo. Only the Congress can do that. The embargo is written into US law through the Helms-Burton Act and a number of other acts. So the embargo is not going anywhere - this is a gambit on the part of Barack Obama to woo Cuba away from Russian influence at the time when the US is concentrating on Russia and there are major oil discoveries offshore in Cuban waters right in America’s backyard. Cupet and Rosneft, the Cuban and Russian oil companies are in negotiations right now to develop these oil fields. And the US is not too happy about that. So nothing is going to change from this.

RT: So is there some kind of hidden battle between these two governments? Maybe it is a strategic move on the part of the Castros?

DB: No, this is a gambit on the part of the Obama administration. Obama is a master chess player but Fidel and the Castros have gone through 10 presidents. And Fidel has never lost a game in his life. So both sides are betting that each one is right. Obama is betting that that opening is going to lead to a change in Cuba, in an overthrow of the government. The Castros are betting that this is going to consolidate their position.