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“Every year, as the spring thaw is awaited in the mountains of Armenia and Azerbaijan, the small coterie of scholars and experts who keep an eye on the Nagorny Karabakh conflict ask, “Will there be war?” This year, Karabakh watchers are especially gloomy. Twenty-sixteen was a bad year, and 2017 could yet be worse,” analyst Thomas de Waal made such an observation in his article published in the Carnegie Europe, Panorama.am reports.

The author claims that the arrangements made in 1994–1995 after the ceasefire was signed look less and less sustainable: no peacekeepers, a tiny Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe monitoring mission with a limited mandate, and a process that has managed the situation but not resolved it.

“Of course, as U.S. Founding Father Benjamin Franklin said, a bad peace is better than a good war. A new conflict in the Caucasus could lead to thousands of casualties and economic devastation—without resolving the core issues of the dispute. But there is a danger that the parties could miscalculate and end up fighting anyway, despite their better judgment,” Waal notes.

According to the author now that the latest diplomatic initiative, spearheaded by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, has stalled, there is a temptation for Baku to retry what might be called military leverage—to launch another operation to recapture territory and put pressure on the Armenian side.

“Both sides almost certainly overestimate their military prowess. Both also have newly acquired deadly weaponry. The Armenians have obtained Iskander missiles from Russia that they exhibited at an Independence Day parade in September 2016. The Azerbaijanis have made big weapons purchases from Israel, including an Iron Dome missile-defense system and military drones,” he adds.

According to Waal several factors are observed in Armenia which can lead to the emergence of instability in the region and another factor of instability is international turbulence. The author claims that if there is another fighting, it will be hard to manage.

"In short, the threat of preemptive violence over Karabakh needs to be met with intense preemptive diplomacy. A descent into new conflict in the South Caucasus is the last thing anyone wants—least of all the ordinary Armenians and Azerbaijanis who will be caught in the middle of it,” Thomas de Waal concludes.