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According to surveys presented by Iranian websites, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the mayor of Tehran, Ali Akbar Velayati, Khamenei's foreign policy adviser, and Saeed Jalili, the chief negotiator for Iran's nuclear program, are the top presidential candidates with, respectively, 26.1%, 17,2% and 9.9%. Mohammad Reza Aref, First Vice President from 1997 to 2005 under President Mohammad Khatami, is the fourth top candidate, Iranian studies expert Armen Israyelyan told Panorama.am when commenting on the election race in Iran. 

“As it was expected, the election campaign is proceeding calmly, without tensions after former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie, a close aide to outgoing president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, were barred from running in the Iranian presidential elections. The candidates use all legal platforms in their campaign, one debate has taken place between the presidential contenders,” the Iranian studies expert said.

According to the expert, the main struggle is between the conservative and reformist candidates. “The two sides criticize each other, pointing to omissions in economy, nuclear program, foreign and domestic policy during the years when they were in office. Besides, reformist candidates also compete with reformists and conservative candidates with conservatives to secure their place in the further election race. It is worth mentioning that there is no significant difference in the candidates’ positions on Iran’s nuclear program and foreign policy, they just have different accents,” Israyelyan said.

Asked which candidate has the biggest chances of victory, the expert did not rule out the possibility of a presidential run-off and said, “Judging by the current arrangement of Iran’s political forces and the capabilities of the candidates, I can say that for the present, no withdrawals will occur, and, until a certain period of time, the main struggle will be between conservative candidates Velayati, Jalili and Qalibaf and reformist candidates Rohani and Aref. In the last days of the election campaign, Iran’s Supreme Leader will perhaps voice his support for one of the candidates and it will then become clear who will be elected President. But it is not ruled out that there will be a run-off between one reformist and one conservative candidate.”

Speaking of the possibility of post-election shocks, the Iranian studies expert said that they are unlikely to occur because there is no strong competition between the current candidates and the Guardian Council of clerics and jurists, barring Rafsanjani and Mashaie from running in the elections, secured safety from post-election developments.

“The Iranian authorities keep control of the situation, with security forces taking tough measures to keep the country safe from external interference. The Iranian Deputy Interior Minister has recently said that Iran could close borders on the election day. Earlier, two men who the Iranian government said worked as spies for Israel and the United States were hanged in Iran. These two facts are a clear “message” to those forces that will try to destabilize the country after the elections,” Israyelyan concluded.