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The situation on Armenian-Azerbaijani border and along the line of contact between the armed forces of Karabakh and Azerbaijan has escalated, but the situation keeps within limits of the tendencies observed in the past few years, political scientist Alexander Iskandaryan told a press conference today.

In his words, escalation will continue, and there will be shootings and subversive actions. “Those actions are hard to stop. On the other hand, I think the start of active military operations is unlikely,’ the expert said.

According to Iskandaryan, the Azerbaijani side’s activity has to do with ‘Shant-2015’ command and staff exercises held in Armenia on September 3-6 and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s visit to Azerbaijan, also – on the global level – with the fall in oil prices. “It is an important factor to be taken into account,” Iskandaryan noted.

He expressed confidence that “the probability of Azerbaijan’s advance is virtually zero”. In his words, Baku does not need a war, and the Karabakh conflict is a very useful and convenient instrument for the Azerbaijani side, a means of justifying poverty in the country.

Commenting on developments in the South Caucasus, A. Iskandaryan stressed the rapid change in the regional situation in connection with the changed agenda of Iran-West relations that will change the role of Iran.

The events in Turkey also contribute to changes: Turkish President Erdogan’s policy is dramatically changing the situation in the region, the expert said indicating the Syria crisis as a third factor of regional changes.

“In fact, a war is underway in the Middle East. The region today is more unstable than it was a few months ago,” Iskandarayn said adding that under such conditions Armenia should watch closely the developments and take balanced steps.