Politics 13:41 01/03/2017 Region

The Council of Foreign Relations assesses ‘the high risk of renewed clashes’ over Nagorno Karabakh

“The likelihood that Armenians and Azerbaijanis will clash over Nagorno-Karabakh in the next twelve months is high,” says the report released by Council of Foreign Relations analytical centre.

The report notes that the situation remains tense following fierce fighting in April 2016 that marked the worst bloodshed since the 1994 cease-fire that established the current territorial division.

“Renewed conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh could reverberate in dangerous ways. Russia is committed by treaty to defend Armenia, Turkey has pledged to protect Azerbaijan, and Iran borders both nations and contains an Azerbaijani minority that far outnumbers the population of Azerbaijan itself. Furthermore, the South Caucasus region has been essential to efforts to reduce the European Union’s energy dependence on Russia and has been a major recipient of Western foreign direct investment and aid. New oil and gas pipelines have benefited Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey; their economies now depend on the revenues and energy this vulnerable network provides. Renewed conflict risks triggering civil unrest or a humanitarian crisis in Armenia and Azerbaijan, or neighboring states, and could lead to even greater Russian military involvement in the region. The high level of attention Washington has paid to Nagorno-Karabakh—which includes twenty years of working alongside Russia and France as co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group—underscores the strong U.S. interest in preserving peace,” notes the author of the report.

The report states that Azerbaijan is most likely to use military force to bring the issue to a head and ultimately seek to change the status quo.

“The April 2016 clash demonstrated the effectiveness of this strategy. President Aliyev had been pointedly criticized for restricting opposition parties, arresting activists, and curtailing freedom of the press. These actions, coupled with a sharply declining economy, resulted in mass protests in early 2016. When fighting broke out with Armenia, however, patriotism soared, flags flew from windows, and young people declared their readiness to enlist,” the report notes.
Regarding Armenia, the authors of the report say: “Armenia could decide that the time is ripe to formally recognize an independent Nagorno-Karabakh.”

The report goes on stating that extensive hostilities over Nagorno-Karabakh jeopardize the considerable successes the United States has achieved over the past twenty-five years in promoting the independence and autonomy of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, and supporting their political and economic development. Two U.S. imperatives—deterring Russian revanchism and establishing a new transportation network to deliver energy resources from Azerbaijan and Central Asia to Western markets independent of Russia and Iran—could be imperilled. Furthermore, renewed warfare could exacerbate already problematic U.S. relations with Russia, Turkey, and Iran, each of which could become embroiled in the conflict.
Assessing prospects for some mitigation option for preventing conflict escalation, the reports suggests the United States could promote a UN Security Council resolution condemning any major military action. “A secondary option, if known, would be to name the instigator. Working with partners, the United States would penalize the party that initiates any major escalation—through public condemnation and potentially by withdrawing economic assistance or using sanctions. It could actively discourage economic support from IFIs and private investors,” says the document,

Taking into account the mentioned risks the report proposes some preventive measures reduce the tension in the conflict zone, namely move to transfer mediation responsibility from OSCE to the United Nations, threaten to withdraw from OSCE Minsk Group leadership, invigorate the Minsk Group co-chairs to promote a resolution, rather than manage the conflict, insist that agreed-upon confidence- and security-building measures (CSBMs) be implemented, etc.
According to the report, Nagorno-Karabakh could become a stepping stone for greater U.S.-Russia cooperation. “Possible intelligence sharing between the United States and Russia regarding military developments in this region could be helpful, as could discussions about whether strategic parity is being maintained given the substantial arms flows into the region,” the reports concludes.



Source Panorama.am
Share |
Տեքստում սխալ կամ վրիպակ նկատելու դեպքում, ուղարկեք խմբագրին հաղորդագրություն` նշելով տվյալ սխալը, այնուհետև սեղմելով Ctrl-Enter:

Newsfeed

20:32
Azerbaijani forces again fire SPIKE guided missile at Artsakh positions
The Azerbaijani forces are reported to have breached the ceasefire regime at the eastern direction of the Artsakh-Azerbaijan Line of Contact on...
20:06
Misha to sing “Boomerang” for Armenia at Junior Eurovision 2017
The Public TV Company of Armenia presented tonight the premiere of Misha’s (Michael Grigoryan) entry song for Junior Eurovision Song...
19:51
Armenian Armed Forces delegation to attend conference in US
An Armenian delegation led by Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces, Lieutenant-General Movses Hakobyan has departed for the US to take...
19:32
Syrian minister: US, Turkish military presence in country – aggression
According to Syria's Information Minister Mohammed Ramiz Tarjaman, Syria considers the entry of the Turkish military into Idlib, and the US...
19:02
Trilateral memorandum for “Yerevan: Smart City” strategic program signed
Official press release by VivaCell-MTS Yerevan Municipality, VivaCell-MTS and the Union of Employers of Information and Communications...
18:54
Karabakh president attends ceremony of donating Armenian style carpets in Gandzasar monastery
Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) Republic President Bako Sahakyan on Monday took part in a solemn ceremony of donating Armenian style carpets to...
18:27
Stamp dedicated to 300th anniversary of establishment of Mekhitarist Congregation put into circulation
“HayPost” CJSC on Monday cancelled and put into circulation a postage stamp dedicated to the 300th anniversary of establishment of...
18:16
Number of violations of journalist rights alarming in Armenia, CPFE chairman says
“The third quarter of 2017 was post-election period, with no social and political tensions seemingly recorded at the time. However even...
17:04
Tickets go on sale today for Armenia v Belarus friendly
The Armenian national football team is set to hold a friendly match with Belarus on November 9, at 6p.m. The tickets of the match hosted by...
16:50
Mine collapse kills one worker in northern Armenia
One worker was killed after an underground mine collapsed in northern Armenian province. According to the press service of the Ministry of...
16:07
Armenian parliament speaker awards Rafail Zinurov
Speaker of Armenia’s National Assembly, Ara Babloyan on Monday awarded the Member of the Russian Federal Council, the Member of the...
15:43
The map of ancient Armenia unveiled in Germany causes stir in Turkish media
A map displayed at a community event in Germany on October 21 caused a stir in the Turkish media sources. Ermenihaber reports, an event named...
14:50
Armenian weightlifting team comes the first at the European Championships, returns home with 32 medals
The Armenian weightlifting team recorded an outstanding result winning 32 medals, including 18 gold, 8 silvers, and 6 bronze at the U-20 and the...
13:56
Armenian police set to keep a national DNA database
The Police of Armenia proposes to establish a national DNA database, Deputy Police Chief of Armenia, Police Mayor-General Vardan Yeghiazaryan...
13:19
Populist billionaire Babis wins landslide in Czech general election
The centrist ANO movement led by populist Andrej Babis won the Czech Republic's parliamentary election on Saturday, France 24 reported,...
12:54
FM Nalbandian to attend the OSCE Mediterranean Conference
Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian is set to participate in the ministerial conference of the Organization for Security and...
12:45
Products and table cloth made in Artsakh displayed at a charity trade exhibition in Nor Jugha
A charity trade-exhibition of Artsakh goods and products, including, fruits, vegetables, dried fruit, and table cloth were displayed at the...
12:00
Azerbaijani forces fire mortar, SPIKE guided missile at Artsakh positions
The Azerbaijani armed forces breached the agreements reached by the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents in the Geneva Summit initiated by the...
11:14
Brent crude oil above $57, nearing the highest close since 2015
Brent crude oil, the world’s international oil benchmark, jumped towards $58 a barrel on Monday – its highest level since January...
10:54
The ruling GDDG candidates win elections in Samtskhe-Javakheti
The ruling Georgian Dream - Democratic Georgia (GDDG) candidates have secured an outright victory in the first round in all municipalities,...
10:27
The 9th ReAnimania International Festival of Yerevan announces 2200 submissions
More than 2200 applications from 100 countries have been submitted for the 9th ReAnimania International Animation & Comics Art Festival of...
19:49
Weightlifter Samvel Gasparyan named European Vice-Champion
The last the of the competition at the U-20 and U-23 European Weightlifting Championships is held today in Durres, Albania. As the National...
19:31
The life in Voskepar village amid growing migration and lack of investments
The migration is reaching new heights in Voskepar border village in Tavush region of Armenia’s north. Serob Makhsudyan, the head of...
18:24
Armenian rocket and artillery troops celebrate the 25th anniversary of establishment
The 25th anniversary of establishment of the rocket and artillery troops of the Armenian Armed Forces was marked on Saturday at one of artillery...
17:57
Spain government to impose direct rule over Catalonia
The Spanish government has suspended Catalonia’s autonomy and will introduce direct rule from next Saturday as the country sinks further...
17:12
Davit Babayan says not an easy task to deal with a terrorist state
Following the Geneva summit on the settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, the Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan stated that no specific...
16:08
Armenian, Belarusian ministers discuss the prospects for enhancing the cooperation
The representatives of Armenia’s and Belarusian executive bodies believe the trade turnover between Armenia and Belarus does not...
16:07
Law endangering the Soviet monuments takes effect in Poland
A revised law on de-Communization that envisions the pulling down of monuments and memorials associated with Communism or any other totalitarian...
14:57
Weightlifter Arpine Dalalyan declared U-20 European Champion
The last the of the competition at the U-20 and U-23 European Weightlifting Championships is held today in Durres, Albania. As the National...
14:55
Azerbaijani forces fire more than 2300 shots at Armenian positions over past week
The Azerbaijani forces violated the ceasefire regime along the Line of Contact between Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (Artsakh/NKR) and Azerbaijan...

Follow us and get updates!

Most popular articles

{"core.blocks.header.spell_message1":"Selected mistake: ","core.blocks.header.spell_message2":"Send a message about the mistake?"}