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“Last year appeared to be a very dangerous year with a number of escalation possibilities observed. This year might be even more dangerous,” British expert on Caucasus affairs Thomas de Waal said through a video call during the discussion titled “One Year after April War: Assessing the Karabakh Negotiation Process” hosted by the Media Centre.

In the expert’s words, the application of heavier weaponry is not ruled out.

“Certainly there is no alternative to the diplomatic settlement [of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict] taking into account the Vienna agreement. Highly serious, senior international diplomats have tried to assist the peace talks, however it failed to work. Perhaps they lacked sufficient involvement of international diplomacy and inclination towards the implementation of this work,” he added.

Thomas de Waal claimed that a serious intentional player is needed, such as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who should commit to the implementation of that work.

“Sergey Lavrov is a serious diplomat, however in fact he does not undertake commitment to the complete implementation of the work. I think the main issue is strengthening the Minsk Group format, so that it regains its positions and reviewing the Vienna agreement. This is the main option, in case they [the sides] do not want the conflict to restart,” the British expert said.

He noted that Russia plays a central role in mediation and reconciliation process.

“Perhaps nothing happens, if Russia does not take part [in the negotiation process]. There are allegations from both the Armenian and the Azeri sides that Russia is both the principal reconciling side and instigator, i.e. it has concrete interests regarding the two sides. Therefore, Russia plays a very important role as a mediator. However, it is not only Russia that must settle the issue. It is evident as well. Thus, the trilateral agreement format is extremely important,” Thomas de Waal added.