EurasiaNet: De-escalation trend seems likely to continue in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2018
2018 will be the year of a constitutional transition in Armenia and presidential elections in Azerbaijan. Previous election years (2008 and 2013) both saw a relative reduction in frontline casualties, so the current de-escalation trend seems likely to continue, EurasiaNet said in an article by correspondent Emil Sanamyan, stressing 2017 in fact saw less fighting along the Karabakh-Azerbaijan line of contact than any of the previous three years.
The author reminds that 2017 began with dire predictions for Nagorno-Karabakh, citing former American envoy for Karabakh Carey Cavanaugh, who argued that “the likelihood that Armenians and Azerbaijanis will clash over Nagorno-Karabakh in the next twelve months is high.” In March, the International Crisis Group warned that “the danger of even more perilous fighting remains real”.
“Looking at incident rates and associated casualties, 2017 in fact saw less fighting than any of the previous three years. A resumption in diplomatic contacts in the latter part of the year reflected the two sides’ decision to take a pause in military operations. Still, there was no real prospect of agreement, no new cease-fire strengthening mechanisms, and no third-party sanctions for cease-fire violations,” reads the article.
U.S. analysts do not predict an all-out war scenario over Karabakh in 2018, the Voice of America reports.
According to former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, John Herbst, the current status quo will be maintained in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2018 as well.
American military expert Stephen Blank shares the same view. “Winter is not the best time to launch an offensive, but I see no grounds to initiate any military operation in the upcoming spring as well,” he said.