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The meeting between Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s foreign ministers scheduled this week is likely to centre on security issues, including numbers of international observers in Nagorno-Karabakh, Magdalena Grono, Program Director at International Crisis Group (ICG) writes in an op-ed published on the organization’s website on Wednesday.

The author reminds that security along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, and the Line of Contact (LOC) around Nagorno-Karabakh has been precarious since the 1994 ceasefire with only OSCE observers monitoring the line, even though this is one of the most heavily militarised regions in the world.

“The 18 January meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers will discuss an increase of the number of OSCE observers, according to diplomats close to the peace process. The sides are still at odds on modalities. Baku would at most like to see a light-touch arrangement with no change in the current offices, whereas Yerevan prefers a more hands-on arrangement, including new personnel with new duties. In Nagorno-Karabakh, sources told Crisis Group they seek a permanent OSCE field presence in heavily populated parts of the Line of Contact. Although it is a tall order for a dozen unarmed staff to monitor the full length of the line, and the impact of their presence on overall security may be limited, an increase in numbers would be a small breakthrough in a process that often struggles to secure as much as a date for the next meeting between the sides. The other CSBM on the table, an investigative mechanism, is far less likely to be agreed, diplomats say,” read the op-ed.

The author suggests that in order to prevent further escalation, a discussion on security alone is insufficient. “The political aspects of a future settlement, based on mutual concessions, will have to be addressed with international security arrangements to guarantee them” the author said.