Politics 19:32 23/02/2019 Region

Implications for non-resolution of the conflict around Nagorno Karabakh

The OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs visited Baku and Yerevan during the regular trip to the region. As it has been the case with statements summing up previous visits, they spread little light on the content of the talks, except documenting the fact of the meetings. Earlier PM Nikol Pashinyan held informal meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Davos that was facilitated without the Minsk Group mediators. The Co-Chairs thus came to region to receive first-hand information as confirmed in the statement of the government press service.

After the Co-Chairs’ visit, number of experts came up with comments on the situation, former U.S. co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group Richard Hoagland and analyst Paul Goble among them.

Dabbing the recent developments as promising, Ambassador Hoagland, however, sees no breakthrough in the near future. He has reflected on the so-called “Lavrov plan”, emphasizing the main decision in the matter is in the hands of Moscow, also voicing the long-stated view that the Kremlin has no interest in solving the conflicts in the post -Soviet region out of fear to lose its leverage.

Paul Goble mainly agrees with this statement, and asserts it is questionable whether Russia actually wants a resolution of the conflict, instead controlling the negotiations to preserve its influence in the region of the South Caucasus. In short, American experts ascribe the non-constructive role in the NK peace process to Russia which is not unexpected and even is backed by certain facts.

According to this logic, Russia presents unrealistic options for the conflict settlement to the sides, like the “Lavrov plan”, ensures low intensity of the talks, sales weapons to them and controls to prevent any tension to evolve into large-scale military actions. It turns out Russia’s strategic interest is in maintaining a frozen or semi-frozen conflict to use it as a tool in relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan.

This assumption implies that any scenario of the conflict settlement will result in losing influence in the region for Russia, and the countries under subject will leave “Russian spheres of interests”. This certainly is a regrettable situation if it turns out that Russia sees no other efficient option to keep Armenia and Azerbaijan within its orbit apart from forcing a friendship to them.

On the other side, other actors may benefit from the unresolved conflict of Nagorno Karabakh, including Turkey, Iran, US, and Georgia, as Russian permanent success on the geopolitical turns is not guaranteed. Having an unresolved conflict in the volatile and vulnerable region of the South Caucasus provides equal number of challenges and opportunities.

Imagine, if theoretically the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders reach an agreement without any mediator be from Russia, US or elsewhere, and the conflict is resolved. The Russian side will not be interested in it to recall the arguments brought above. The US, in turn, does not consider the NK settlement a priority. The Trump administration is now focusing on Iran, while the settlement of the NK conflict could open up opportunities in this direction. The third Co-Chairing state of the Minsk Group France has no vital interest in this conflict. France itself faces more significant challenges both internally and in Europe, yet it wishes to stay involved in the conflict settlement process

Summing up we can conclude that despite public assurances that Nagorno Karabakh is one of the few conflicts where the mediators have no diverging positions, the reality is that neither agreement on principles of solving the conflict nor around the idea of solving the issue in general exists.

Any change of the status quo will lead to the redesign of mechanism of the reginal leverage with negative consequences. That is why in the coming future the OSCE Minsk group will continue its role of maintaining status quo as expressed in institutional terms. No one can blame them for inaction as the blame can be easily put on the conflicting sides. In theory, the idea that Armenia and Azerbaijan can reach an agreement without a mediator seems unrealistic due to diametrically opposed and uncompromising stances of the countries.

No matter how reasonable and rational the mediators consider the Madrid principles, they do not meet the expectations of the parties especially when they are not prone for substantial compromises amid a lack of atmosphere of trust. In order to ensure a breakthrough in the negotiations either new approaches should be adopted, or the parties should revisit their ‘read lines’. This refers first and foremost to Azerbaijan that never leaves its “all and at once” principle. In fact, this infantile policy is characterized with aggressiveness of a child and irresponsibility toward own deeds. Otherwise, it remains irrelevant whether the meeting took place in the Alps or the agreements were reached in an elevator in the Central Asia, in Austrian or Russian Imperial palaces.


Ana Mkrtchyan. political scientist
 



Source Panorama.am
Share |
Տեքստում սխալ կամ վրիպակ նկատելու դեպքում, ուղարկեք խմբագրին հաղորդագրություն` նշելով տվյալ սխալը, այնուհետև սեղմելով Ctrl-Enter:

Newsfeed

20:29
Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Armenia and Palestine meet in Geneva
Foreign Minister of Armenia Zohrab Mnatsakanyan, who is in Geneva to participate in the 43rd session of the UN Human Rights Council, met on...
20:17
No complaints among passengers of Tehran-Yerevan flight recorded by National Center of Disease Control
Tehran-Yerevan charter flight carrying 52 passengers landed on Wednesday at Zvarntos International airport, the Armenian ministry of healthcare...
20:06
The operation of Khojaly was a chance for Stepanakert residents to preserve their right to live - Marina Grigoryan
“It is important to record all the developments that preceded the operation of Khojaly, and study the reasons that led to the military...
20:04
The US has started human testing of a drug to treat the novel coronavirus
Hope for treating the novel coronavirus could be on the horizon, as the first US study of a drug to treat the illness is underway, CNN reported....
18:31
Female servicemen assure they are ready to overcome any challenge
Defense Minister of Armenia Davit Tonoyan was present today at a demonstrative hand-to-hand combat trainings of women servicemen. As the defense...
17:17
22 EU states have ratified CEPA – deputy minister
The development of Armenia-EU relations is among the priorities of Armenia’s foreign relations, Armenia’s Deputy Foreign Minister...
16:17
Pope to Catholics: For Lent, give up trolling
During Lent, Catholics are called on to give up something, like sweets. On Wednesday, Pope Francis added a modern twist to the list of things to...
16:03
Yerevan court denies motion for prosecutor’s recusal from Serzh Sargsyan’s case
The Yerevan Court of First Instance, presided over by Judge Vahe Misakyan, announced on Wednesday a decision on the motion filed by third...
15:38
Syrian army shoots down Turkish drone in Idlib
The Syrian army shot down a Turkish drone in the northwestern province of Idlib on Tuesday, Xinhua reported citing state news agency SANA....
15:15
Armenia facing face mask shortage amid coronavirus fears
A few weeks ago, when the novel coronavirus in China first hit the news, people wearing face masks were often spotted along the streets of...
14:02
MP: 4,800 Armenian citizens sought asylum in EU in 2018
In 2018, the number of Armenian citizens seeking asylum for the first time in all EU member states dropped by 30%, Arman Yeghoyan, Chairman of...
13:25
How an Armenian scientist created an international company using a toy
In 1999, Dr. George Ambartsoumian founded GA International, a company that provides exceptional identification solutions for industries...
13:13
Artsakh president introduces new defense minister to supreme command staff of army
Artsakh Republic President Bako Sahakyan on Wednesday visited the country’s Defense Ministry, his office reported. The president...
12:52
Italy confirms three more deaths from coronavirus
The number of coronavirus patients to have died in Italy reached 10 on Tuesday after regional authorities in Lombardy confirmed three more...
12:43
FM: Armenia underlines priority of security and status for Karabakh
Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan delivered remarks at the 43rd Session of the United Nations Human Rights Council on Tuesday....
12:31
Lawyer: Pashinyan enjoys keeping Kocharyan in custody
Armenia’s second President Robert Kocharyan has been in freedom for around five months during the criminal probe into the case involving...
12:11
Coronavirus spreading in Europe, Middle East
The coronavirus is spreading in Europe, the Middle East and other parts of the world, while parts of China begin to lower their emergency...
11:53
Thomas de Waal: Time for an Armenia-Azerbaijan history ceasefire
"By recycling conspiracy theories and distorted versions of the past, the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders only prolong their unresolved...
11:33
Justin Bieber breaks US chart record held by Elvis Presley
Justin Bieber has broken a US chart record set by Elvis Presley 59 years ago, by becoming the youngest artist to score seven No 1 albums, The...
11:26
Armenian FM holds phone call with top EU official
Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan of Armenia had on Tuesday a telephone conversation with Josep Borrell, High Representative for Foreign...
11:06
Russia's Lavrov rejects Idlib ceasefire as 'capitulating before terrorists'
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Tuesday rejected calls for a halt to a Russia-backed Syrian offensive in Idlib in northwest Syria, AFP...
10:50
Stepantsminda-Larsi highway closed for trucks
Some roads in Armenia are closed or difficult to pass as of 8:40am Wednesday, February 26, the Ministry of Emergency Situations reported....
10:38
Turks attack each other: Cypriot Turkish leader criticizes Turkey
By Harut Sassounian Publisher, The California Courier Turkish columnist Orhan Kemal Cengiz wrote an article in the Turkish website...
10:10
UN appeals for $500 million amid Idlib carnage
The United Nations is appealing for $500 million to provide humanitarian, life-saving assistance for 1.1 million civilians trapped in a war zone...
18:10
Libya conflict: Two Turkish troops killed
Two Turkish soldiers have been killed in Libya, the first casualties the nation has confirmed since it sent troops to the oil-rich state, BBC...
17:35
Police publishes the lists of eligible voters for upcoming referendum
The Police of Armenia published on Tuesday the list of eligible voters for the upcoming referendum on constitutional changes as envisaged by the...
17:12
Armenian, Russian FMs meet in Geneva
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with Armenian FM Zohrab Mnatsakanyan on Tuesday, Ria Novosti news agency reported. As the source...
16:53
Iran deputy health minister tests positive for coronavirus
The head of Iran‘s counter-coronavirus taskforce has tested positive for coronavirus, a spokesperson for the country’s health...
16:13
Former President Serzh Sargsyan thanks supporters outside Yerevan court
Armenia’s third President Serzh Sargsyan has arrived at the Yerevan First Instance Court of Avan and Nor Nork district which is set to...
15:40
Viva-MTS: Metal shelter became farmer's warehouse
One more family left the metal container house in Armenia's second largest city of Gyumri. Viva-MTS and the Fuller Center for Housing...

Follow us and get updates!

Most popular articles

{"core.blocks.header.spell_message1":"Selected mistake: ","core.blocks.header.spell_message2":"Send a message about the mistake?"}