Politics 19:32 23/02/2019 Region

Implications for non-resolution of the conflict around Nagorno Karabakh

The OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs visited Baku and Yerevan during the regular trip to the region. As it has been the case with statements summing up previous visits, they spread little light on the content of the talks, except documenting the fact of the meetings. Earlier PM Nikol Pashinyan held informal meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Davos that was facilitated without the Minsk Group mediators. The Co-Chairs thus came to region to receive first-hand information as confirmed in the statement of the government press service.

After the Co-Chairs’ visit, number of experts came up with comments on the situation, former U.S. co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group Richard Hoagland and analyst Paul Goble among them.

Dabbing the recent developments as promising, Ambassador Hoagland, however, sees no breakthrough in the near future. He has reflected on the so-called “Lavrov plan”, emphasizing the main decision in the matter is in the hands of Moscow, also voicing the long-stated view that the Kremlin has no interest in solving the conflicts in the post -Soviet region out of fear to lose its leverage.

Paul Goble mainly agrees with this statement, and asserts it is questionable whether Russia actually wants a resolution of the conflict, instead controlling the negotiations to preserve its influence in the region of the South Caucasus. In short, American experts ascribe the non-constructive role in the NK peace process to Russia which is not unexpected and even is backed by certain facts.

According to this logic, Russia presents unrealistic options for the conflict settlement to the sides, like the “Lavrov plan”, ensures low intensity of the talks, sales weapons to them and controls to prevent any tension to evolve into large-scale military actions. It turns out Russia’s strategic interest is in maintaining a frozen or semi-frozen conflict to use it as a tool in relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan.

This assumption implies that any scenario of the conflict settlement will result in losing influence in the region for Russia, and the countries under subject will leave “Russian spheres of interests”. This certainly is a regrettable situation if it turns out that Russia sees no other efficient option to keep Armenia and Azerbaijan within its orbit apart from forcing a friendship to them.

On the other side, other actors may benefit from the unresolved conflict of Nagorno Karabakh, including Turkey, Iran, US, and Georgia, as Russian permanent success on the geopolitical turns is not guaranteed. Having an unresolved conflict in the volatile and vulnerable region of the South Caucasus provides equal number of challenges and opportunities.

Imagine, if theoretically the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders reach an agreement without any mediator be from Russia, US or elsewhere, and the conflict is resolved. The Russian side will not be interested in it to recall the arguments brought above. The US, in turn, does not consider the NK settlement a priority. The Trump administration is now focusing on Iran, while the settlement of the NK conflict could open up opportunities in this direction. The third Co-Chairing state of the Minsk Group France has no vital interest in this conflict. France itself faces more significant challenges both internally and in Europe, yet it wishes to stay involved in the conflict settlement process

Summing up we can conclude that despite public assurances that Nagorno Karabakh is one of the few conflicts where the mediators have no diverging positions, the reality is that neither agreement on principles of solving the conflict nor around the idea of solving the issue in general exists.

Any change of the status quo will lead to the redesign of mechanism of the reginal leverage with negative consequences. That is why in the coming future the OSCE Minsk group will continue its role of maintaining status quo as expressed in institutional terms. No one can blame them for inaction as the blame can be easily put on the conflicting sides. In theory, the idea that Armenia and Azerbaijan can reach an agreement without a mediator seems unrealistic due to diametrically opposed and uncompromising stances of the countries.

No matter how reasonable and rational the mediators consider the Madrid principles, they do not meet the expectations of the parties especially when they are not prone for substantial compromises amid a lack of atmosphere of trust. In order to ensure a breakthrough in the negotiations either new approaches should be adopted, or the parties should revisit their ‘read lines’. This refers first and foremost to Azerbaijan that never leaves its “all and at once” principle. In fact, this infantile policy is characterized with aggressiveness of a child and irresponsibility toward own deeds. Otherwise, it remains irrelevant whether the meeting took place in the Alps or the agreements were reached in an elevator in the Central Asia, in Austrian or Russian Imperial palaces.


Ana Mkrtchyan. political scientist
 



Source Panorama.am
Share |
Տեքստում սխալ կամ վրիպակ նկատելու դեպքում, ուղարկեք խմբագրին հաղորդագրություն` նշելով տվյալ սխալը, այնուհետև սեղմելով Ctrl-Enter:

Newsfeed

19:09
Ashot Karapetyan wins the second medal in Turkey
Skier Ashot Karapetyan has won a bronze medal at Giant Slalom of the international tournament underway in Turkey, the National Olympic Committee...
18:47
European U-19 Championship Cup arrives in Armenia
The elite round of the 2019 UEFA European Under-19 Championship will kick off in Armenia. The winning team of each of the group will arrive in...
16:56
Australian PM denounces Erdogan for 'reckless' New Zealand attack comments
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Wednesday condemned "reckless" and "highly offensive" comments made by...
16:04
Kazakhstan senate names ex-president Nazarbayev's daughter as speaker
Kazakhstan's senate on Wednesday named ex-president Nursultan Nazarbayev's daughter Dariga as its new speaker, setting her up as a...
15:51
Pashinyan holds phone conversation with Medvedev
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia on Wednesday talked with Russian Premier Dmitry Medvedev over the phone, his office said. ...
15:39
Kazakhstan's parliament okays renaming Astana as Nursultan
The parliament of Kazakhstan approved on Wedesday the bill on renaming the capital city of Astana to Nursultan, in honour of ex-leader Nursultan...
15:17
Foreign Ministry: Manipulation of Armenian Genocide issue amid Turkish-Israeli spat ‘unacceptable’
Manipulation of the Armenian Genocide issue against the backdrop of tensions in Turkish-Israeli relations is unacceptable for Armenia, Foreign...
14:18
Artsakh president, Armenian army chief discuss army building
Artsakh Republic President Bako Sahakyan on Wednesday hosted Chief of the General Staff of the Armenian Armed Forces Artak Davtyan. Issues...
14:09
Turkey’s Erdogan says removing death penalty was ‘wrong’
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has once again brought up the issue of restoring the death penalty, vowing to approve such legislation if...
13:59
PACE president to visit Armenia next week
President of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) Liliane Maury Pasquier will visit Armenia on 26-28 March, Foreign...
13:29
27th group of U.S. Peace Corps volunteers arrives in Armenia
A group of 37 U.S. Peace Corps Volunteers arrived in Armenia last night. The volunteers are all U.S. citizens, who have made a decision to spend...
12:57
New Kazakh president: Astana should be renamed to 'Nursultan'
Kazakhstan's newly sworn-in president Kasym-Jomart Tokayev has proposed renaming the country's capital in honour of ex-leader Nursultan...
12:41
Kocharyan's attorneys appeal court ruling to extend ex-president’s arrest
The attorneys of Armenia’s second President Robert Kocharyan have appealed the first instance ruling to extend his arrest to the Yerevan...
12:18
Turkey earthquake: 5.7 magnitude quake strikes sending tremors through tourist hotspots
An earthquake measuring up to 5.7 magnitude has rocked Denizli in Turkey, sending tremors across tourist hotspots, Daily Express reports....
12:07
Armenia’s economic competition commission studying aviation fuel market with Georgian side
Armenia's State Commission for the Protection of Economic Competition (SCPEC) has launched a study in the aviation fuel market in an attempt...
11:30
Awesome Foundation Artsakh yields its first awesome fruit
A cozy library and intellectual nook has been inaugurated in Nor Shen village of Martuni region of Artsakh. The project was sponsored by the...
11:08
Lars road open for traffic
Stepantsminda-Lars highway is open for all types of vehicles as of 10am Wednesday, March 20, the Roads Department of Georgia’s Ministry of...
10:56
Joe Biden tells supporters he plans 2020 bid: report
Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden told a group of supporters on Tuesday that he is planning to run for president in the 2020 and needs help...
10:40
Snow hits some roads in Armenia
Armenia’s Ministry of Transport, Communication and Information Technologies reports snowfalls on the roads of Sevan region as well as the...
10:25
Trump says strongly considering NATO membership for Brazil
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he was strongly considering NATO membership for Brazil as he welcomed Brazilian President Jair...
10:20
Pashinyan holds phone conversation with Nazarbayev
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia on Tuesday had a telephone conversation with Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, hours after he...
20:23
Air temperature to grow up by 2-3 degrees tomorrow
Precipitation is predicted on March 20 in Syunik province, Hydromet meteorological service at the ministry of emergency situations reported on...
20:13
Armenian athletes head for Japan to take part in the World Figure Skating Championships
Armenian team of figure skaters have left for Japan to take part in the 2019 ISU World Figure Skating Championships to open on Wednesday in...
20:09
The First Lady for every Armenian man is his wife - PM Pashinyan
For every Armenian man his wife is his First Lady, likewise every Armenian woman regards her husband as her First Gentleman,” Prime...
19:43
Armenia’s Vardenyats pass closed for cargo trucks
The Ministry of Transport, Communication and Information Technologies reports that as of 17:00 Tuesday Vardenyats pass is difficult to pass for...
19:05
Azerbaijan sets up a military base near the border with Armenia
Azerbaijan is setting up an operating military base in the Ghazakh-Aghstafa section of the state border with Armenia, Artsakhpress news agency...
17:40
President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev resigns
Nursultan Nazarbayev, the president of Kazakhstan, said on Tuesday he was resigning as the Central Asian nation’s leader after three...
17:16
President Sarkissian hosted Levon Aronian: Your each victory makes us proud
President Armen Sarkissian hosted today Armenia’s leading chess player, three times World Chess Olympiad winner Levon Aronian, press...
16:35
Armenian national team holds training ahead of Euro 2020 qualifiers against Bosnia and Herzegovina
Armenian national football team will face Bosnia and Herzegovina and Finland on 23 and 26 March consequently as part of the Euro 2020 Group J...
16:12
Pashinyan: Statements on involving Artsakh in negotiations not a challenge, but an invitation to dialogue
The agenda proposed by Armenia to involve Artsakh in the negotiations is not something new both for the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs and...

Follow us and get updates!

Most popular articles

{"core.blocks.header.spell_message1":"Selected mistake: ","core.blocks.header.spell_message2":"Send a message about the mistake?"}