Politics 10:35 16/10/2019 Armenia

A declassified top secret CIA report on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

By Harut Sassounian

Publisher, The California Courier

A 48-page Central Intelligence Agency Top Secret Report, prepared in August 1988 and made public in 2012 with some deletions, is titled “Unrest in the Caucasus and the Challenge of Nationalism.” Despite the passage of time, the Report includes an interesting analysis of the Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) conflict from the perspective of U.S. intelligence services.

The CIA analyst, in the introduction of his Report, traced the origins of the Artsakh conflict: “Enmity between Armenian and Azeri factions has existed for hundreds of years, and the 1920s settlement subordinating Nagorno-Karabakh -- Armenia’s cultural and religious center -- to the Azerbaijan Republic has been a continual, albeit long-muted, source of Armenian frustration and concern. Azeri animosity toward the Armenians has been intensified by political, economic, and demographic trends that have adversely affected the political status of Azeris and increased the gap in living standards between Azerbaijan and Armenia. In particular, the rapid expansion of Azerbaijan’s young adult population has put enormous strain on the Republic’s capacity to provide adequate jobs, housing, and education. Azeri frustration has found an outlet in attacks on Armenians.”

The unnamed CIA analyst reported that a split within the Politburo on how to handle the Artsakh crisis made the situation worse. Second Secretary Ligachev and KGB Chief Chebrikov were the hardliners who vehemently opposed the separation of Artsakh from Azerbaijan. They disagreed with Gorbachev’s reforms and blamed foreign powers for inciting unrest inside the Soviet Union.

When two prominent Armenian writers, Silva Kaputikyan and Zori Balayan, met with Gorbachev in Moscow in February 1988, they reported that he was well briefed and assured them that he wanted a “just solution.” He acknowledged “the peaceful nature of the [Armenian] demonstrations and emphasized his personal sympathy with the desire to reunite Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia….”

Upon the return of the Armenian envoys to Yerevan, in a radio broadcast on February 27, 1988, Kaputikyan called for Armenians to trust Gorbachev. “He knows about and understands our problem and wants to resolve it personally…. We must do our utmost to ensure that no harm” is done to him, Kaputikyan announced.

Regarding Soviet concerns about foreign, particularly Armenian-American interference in domestic Soviet turmoil, the CIA analyst reported: “The recent unrest appears to have made Soviet officials more fearful about the role of foreign actors in the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Of the approximately 5.5 million people in the world today who speak Armenian, about 60% live outside the Soviet Armenian republic, about 1.4 million elsewhere in the USSR, and 2 million abroad. So far, Armenian emigres -- most of whom see Turkey much more than Russia as the historic oppressor of their nation -- have not been actively involved in pushing for change in the Soviet system or in Soviet policies. Moscow worries that diaspora attitudes could turn sharply critical of the USSR and that Armenians in the United States, particularly, could grow into a powerful anti-Soviet pressure group. Soviet officials are wary of the large concentration of Armenians in California and New York, states with large electoral votes that have been closely contested in previous presidential elections.”

In a footnote at the end of the previous paragraph, the CIA analyst specified that “the United States hosts at least 600,000 Armenians. About 90 percent of America’s Soviet Armenian immigrants came to California. Los Angeles -- with 100,000 -- has the largest community of Armenians outside Yerevan. The New York City region has about 70,000 Armenians, mostly from Lebanon and Iran.”

The CIA analyst added: “Moscow may be concerned that foreign Armenian terrorist groups like the Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia (ASALA) could turn against Soviet targets -- although we have no evidence that this is the case. Hitherto, the USSR has figured very little in ASALA’s blending of armed struggle with Marxist ideology; the dominant faction of ASALA considers Soviet Armenia as liberated territory and the group concentrates its attacks exclusively on Turkish officials. In fact, ASALA eventually would like to see ‘the Armenian provinces’ now located in Turkey and possibly Iraq [?] reattach themselves to the Soviet Armenian core. Furthermore, ASALA is now in a quiet phase, and its leader was assassinated on 28 April [1988]. Nevertheless, ASALA in early April did send a moderately worded appeal to Gorbachev supporting the reunification of Karabakh with Armenia, while characteristically stressing that Armenia is an integral part of the USSR and seeks only to rectify the border, not to pursue claims against Moscow.”

Finally, the CIA analyst explained the position of Turkey on the Karabakh conflict: “Although the Turkish Government has not explicitly sided with Azerbaijan, Turkey’s fear of resurgent Armenian nationalism makes Ankara sympathetic to Baku. When the crisis broke in February [1988], Turkish Government spokesmen indicated publicly that international agreements entitle Ankara to a voice in the crisis, an apparent reference to the 1921 treaty between the USSR and Turkey that led to the shift of Nagorno-Karabakh and Nakhichevan to Azerbaijan. Turkey no doubt especially feared that transferring Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia would whet Armenian appetites and would lead to increased pressure to change the status of Nakhichevan and to acquire former Armenian regions in Turkey. Turkish officials probably also noted that some Armenian expansionist demands for a ‘Greater Armenia’ were based on historic claims rather than on the ethnic composition of the affected territories. Thus, some Armenians have demanded the return of Nakhichevan, even though Azeris now greatly outnumber Armenians in this region. Using such historical criteria, could give Armenians a claim even on some border parts of Turkey where only 50,000 Armenians now live.”

The CIA analyst concluded his Report by outlining five options the USSR had for the resolution of the Artsakh conflict:

1)  “Sticking with the Status Quo”
2)  “Making Further Economic Concessions” to Armenians
3)  “Enhancing Autonomy of Nagorno-Karabakh Within Azerbaijan”
4)  Expanding “Extraterritorial Native Cultural Institutions”
5)  “Reconfiguration of Nagorno-Karabakh” by splitting it between Armenia and Azerbaijan.



Source Panorama.am
Share |
Տեքստում սխալ կամ վրիպակ նկատելու դեպքում, ուղարկեք խմբագրին հաղորդագրություն` նշելով տվյալ սխալը, այնուհետև սեղմելով Ctrl-Enter:

Newsfeed

17:27
Wrestler Artur Aleksanyan named UNICEFF National Ambassador in Armenia
Armenian Greco-Roman wrestler, an Olympic Champion, a three-time World Champion and a four-time European Champion Artur Aleksanyan was named as...
16:04
Turkey's S-400 systems to be ‘ready for combat’ by spring
The S-400 missile defence systems will be operated by the Turkish army no later than the spring of 2020, while the training of Turkish...
15:54
France following Kocharyan’s trial, lawyer says
Sevak Torosyan, a French-Armenian lawyer of second Armenian President Robert Kocharyan, has addressed a letter to French President Emmanuel...
15:00
Iran condemns US show of support for 'rioters'
Iran condemned the United States' support for "rioters" in a statement issued late Sunday, after two days of violent protests in...
14:48
Armenian PM sacks deputy chief military inspectors
By the decision of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Kamo Kochunts has been relieved of the post of First Deputy Chief Military Inspector. By...
14:36
Gallup lists Armenia among world’s safest countries
Gallup International has listed Armenia among the world’s safest countries in its latest Law and Order report for 2018. The 2019...
14:05
Armenia’s chief military inspector sacked
By the decision of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Movses Hakobyan has been dismissed as Chief Military Inspector of Armenia. “Guided...
13:54
Heading to Baku again: interview with YPC’s Boris Navasardyan
Below is Panorama.am’s interview with President of the Yerevan Press Club (YPC) Boris Navasardyan - Mr. Navasardyan, according to the...
12:59
North Korea says will not offer anything to Trump without receiving in return: KCNA
North Korea will not offer anything for U.S. President Donald Trump to brag about without receiving anything in return, Reuters reported, citing...
12:13
Prisoner escapes from Yerevan hospital
Arayik Sargsyan, a 31-year-old convict of the Nubarashen Penitentiary in Yerevan has escaped Erebouni Medical Center where he was receiving...
11:52
Venice's legendary 'waterproof' bookshop overwhelmed by floods
Last week's deluge proved too much even for one famous Venice bookstore which had resigned itself to constant flooding, keeping its books...
11:33
Pennsylvania man who confessed to killing his girlfriend was leading ‘double life’
A Pennsylvania man confessed to kidnapping then killing his girlfriend in Las Vegas as he carried on a “double life,” New York Post...
11:30
Armenian parliament continues its work
The Armenian National Assembly continued its regular sessions on Monday, 18 November, with lawmakers set to debate and vote on several bills the...
10:56
One injured in road traffic accident in Armenia
One person has been injured in a road traffic accident on an Armenian highway on Sunday, November 17. The accident occurred on the 32nd...
10:37
Plane with Hillary Clinton aboard returns to gate after mechanical issue
Hillary Clinton was aboard an American Airlines flight from New York that suffered a mechanical issue and needed to return to the gate Sunday...
20:00
Air temperature to go down by 2-4 degrees tomorrow
No precipitation is predicted in the territory of Armenia In the daytime of November 17-21, Hydromet meteorological service reported on...
19:22
Armenian national team leaves for Italy for the last Euro 2020 qualification match
The Armenian national team and the Armenian football delegation left for Italy on Saturday to play the final match as part of the Euro 2020...
18:51
Armenia’s divorce rates down this year
Armenia had a rate of 246 divorces per 1,000 marriages from January to September this year, against the 264 divorce cases of the same period of...
18:30
Azerbaijani forces fired around 2,300 shots toward Artsakh defense positions over the past week
The Azerbaijani armed forces violated the ceasefire along the Artsakh-Azerbaijan Line of Contact over 210 times in the past week, the...
17:54
PM sends congratulatory message on Robert Amirkhanyan’s 80th anniversary
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan sent a congratulatory message to the People’s Artist of Armenia, composer Robert Amirkhanyan on the...
17:17
Car bomb kills at least 12 in Syrian town held by Turkey
A car bomb exploded Saturday in a northern Syrian town controlled by Turkey-backed opposition fighters, killing at least 12 people and wounding...
16:21
Robert Abajyan: A name to be remembered by current and future generations
Robert Abajyan – hero of Artsakh would have turned 22 on November 16. Born to bring peace and love Robert immortalized leaving all his...
15:53
Paris police close 23 Metro and RER stations for yellow vest protests
Some 23 Paris Metro and RER stations were closed in Paris on Saturday by order of the police, who fear the yellow protests being staged to mark...
14:41
Prime Minister Pashinyan holds Security Council meeting
An extraordinary  Security Council meeting was held today, chaired by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. As the government press service...
13:42
Jewelry worth 1,9 million AMD stolen from a passenger’s luggage at Zvartnots airport
On November 15, at around 20:00 a Russian citizen reported to Yerevan Police department that a jewelry worth 1,9 million AMD (around $4,000) was...
12:52
Fog observed on Goris-Zanger roadway
The roads in Armenia are passable as of November 16 morning, the country’s ministry of emergency situations (MES) reported. According to...
12:32
The Armenian Center for American Studies reveals Senator Lindsey Graham’s ties with Turkish Lobbyists
The Armenian center of American Studies reports that during the press conference following the meeting between US President Donald Trump and...
11:48
Armenian church commemorates the Apostles Andrew and Phillip
Armenian Apostolic church marks the commemorates of the Apostles Andrew and Phillip. Qahana.am reports, that before becoming Christ’s...
10:56
Ukraine says it has detained deputy to slain Islamic State official
Ukraine’s security service said on Friday it had detained the deputy of Abu Omar al-Shishani, the man the Pentagon described as Islamic...
10:36
Pianist Eva Gevorgyan granted Armenian citizenship
15-year-old Russian-Armenian pianist Eva Gevorgyan, a participant of numerous competitions and festivals, the laureate of world famous...

Follow us and get updates!

Most popular articles

{"core.blocks.header.spell_message1":"Selected mistake: ","core.blocks.header.spell_message2":"Send a message about the mistake?"}