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Negotiations on a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan have entered an active phase at the year-end, intensifying debates on it.

In addition, it is already known that snap presidential elections will be held in Azerbaijan on 7 February 2024. In Armenia, rumors about the possible conduct of parliamentary elections in 2024 are being circulated.

Panorama.am reached out to political analyst Stepan Danielyan for comments on these matters.

In response to the question why the parties involved in the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations are in a rush, Danielyan said: "Not all parties are in a hurry. Maybe one or two of them are in haste. After 2020, these negotiations were constantly going on, with the roads in the spotlight. The war also started for the roads, as they have geopolitical significance".

Stepan Danielyan stated that no one “is actually interested in peace, it is all about interests.”

"Peace is an abstract concept, while interests are concrete. Russia needs a railroad through Armenia to Azerbaijan and Turkey, as Ankara still has conflicts with the West. A railroad through Julfa to Iran is also possible, which is opposed by the West, as Russia will have access to the Persian Gulf and its role will increase," the political analyst said, recalling Russia’s statements that the West “hinders” the establishment of peace in the region.

In Danielyan’s words, Azerbaijan has faced problems in connection with the road, as the West rejects it, while Russia and Iran support it.

"But Azerbaijan has obligations to the West, which helped it take over Nagorno-Karabakh. Moscow also helped Baku realize this plan. Now contradictions have emerged," he said.

According to the political analyst, the West, supporting Azerbaijan during the Artsakh war (authorization to initiate the war, provision of weapons and ammunition, diplomatic cover, intelligence, terrorists from Syria, etc.) in order to oust Russia from the South Caucasus, in fact opened up great opportunities for Russia and Iran. Russia, on the other hand, authorized Azerbaijan to start a war in Artsakh in its own scenario.

"Aliyev is now trying to maneuver between Russia and Iran on one side and the U.S. on the other, to buy time, as both are demanding Baku to decide which side it has to pick.  A blow from either side can be heavy," he noted.

Speaking about possible snap elections in Armenia, Danielyan said it could hint to the current government’s plans to take an important step strongly opposed by the majority of people.

"I don't know what that step is. It could be about the surrender of the enclaves, the resettlement of Azeris in Armenia, the opening of the railroad through Syunik, the withdrawal of the Russian military base... or altogether. Anything is possible. And the government needs additional legitimacy to take such a step," the political analyst said.