Armenian analyst criticises economy minister's export growth claims

Political analyst Hakob Badalyan has accused Armenian Economy Minister Gevorg Papoyan of presenting export statistics in a misleading way by highlighting sharp percentage increases to individual markets while omitting the relatively small export volumes behind those figures.

In a social media post on Saturday, Badalyan criticised Papoyan's announcement that Armenian exports to China, India and Europe had each risen by more than 80%, arguing that such figures could create the false impression that the country's exports were experiencing rapid overall growth.

"Anyone with only a limited understanding of economics would think Armenia is going through an export boom," Badalyan wrote.

He argued that Armenia's overall exports have, in fact, declined by more than 3%, while imports have increased by nearly 3%, widening the country's negative trade balance. Badalyan said he had highlighted those figures in an earlier analysis.

According to Badalyan, percentage growth rates can be misleading without the corresponding export volumes. He illustrated his point by saying that if exports to Europe increased from two truckloads to four, the result would amount to 100% growth, despite representing only a marginal increase in absolute terms.

"Essentially, this 'nothing' is being presented in percentage terms and served up as an 80% growth parade, without disclosing the actual export volumes," he wrote.