Putin refuses to host Pashinyan at Kremlin, Armenian analyst says

Armenian political analyst Suren Surenyants claims that Russian President Vladimir Putin has refused to host Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the Kremlin, arguing that the Armenian leader has failed to reach any political understanding with Moscow.

Speaking at a press conference on Monday, Surenyants addressed the war in Ukraine, regional security and Armenia's domestic political landscape.

He said that, while Russia formally started the war in Ukraine, its underlying causes should be presented accurately. According to Surenyants, the conflict was largely triggered by NATO's eastward expansion. He argued that, with Western backing, Ukraine abandoned the Minsk I and Minsk II agreements and that NATO's enlargement policy contributed to the outbreak of the war, just as it had contributed to the 2008 Russia-Georgia conflict.

Surenyants also said Western countries had supplied Ukraine with weapons capable of striking targets 2,500 to 3,000 kilometres inside Russian territory. As an example, he referred to the destruction of Wildberries warehouses, noting that the issue has financial implications for many Armenians.

He argued that Russia now faces a strategic choice: either broaden the conflict by targeting European countries backing Ukraine or accept peace terms dictated by Europe. Based on Putin's recent remarks, Surenyants said he believes Moscow has no intention of backing down.

"The West is pursuing its own interests at Ukraine's expense, prolonging the country's suffering," he said, adding that the evolving security environment poses serious challenges for Armenia.

Turning to international diplomacy, Surenyants described the recent meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov as largely procedural. He said there is little indication that relations between Washington and Tehran are moving toward normalisation, citing continued disagreements over Iran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz.

He also argued that the TRIPP initiative has virtually no chance of success under the current regional balance of power unless it takes into account the interests of both Iran and Russia.

Commenting on the detention of businessman and opposition leader Gagik Tsarukyan, Surenyants dismissed the case involving Iranian nationals as a pretext, alleging that the authorities are pursuing a politically motivated campaign against him.

He claimed prosecutors were bringing forward additional criminal allegations after recognising that the original case was too weak to justify keeping Tsarukyan in custody.

"Tsarukyan, like anyone imprisoned for political reasons, is effectively a hostage of the authorities, and it is our responsibility to secure the release of these people through political means," he said.

Surenyants also argued that Armenia's opposition has yet to establish a unified center of resistance, saying its immediate priority should be "crushing the government's repressive machinery."

He further accused the authorities of exploiting citizens' economic vulnerability as a tool of political pressure.

Addressing Armenia's relations with Russia, Surenyants recalled that during the parliamentary election campaign Pashinyan had mocked the opposition by saying his first foreign visit after the election would be to Moscow.

"Let's expose the first lie: the issue is not that no meeting with Putin has taken place, but that Putin refuses to receive Pashinyan at the Kremlin," Surenyants said. "Nik Pashinyan has failed to reach any understanding with Russia. Until political issues are resolved, the sanctions will remain in place."