Removing sanctions against Iran to have unfavorable influence on Turkey and Azerbaijan
“Geopolitically, the success of Lausanne agreements may lead to further rapprochement of Iran with the West and an increase of its geopolitical role in the region. Moreover, the strengthening of the geopolitical role of Iran may significantly undermine the geo-economic importance of Azerbaijan,” an article published on Azerbaijani media outlet Haqqin.az reads.
With the global standoff between Russia and the West, Azerbaijan was viewed as an alternative transit country for energy resources, particularly, for exporting gas from Turkmenistan to Europe. However, that was only in the format of realizing the project TAP. The global players hurried to give up Azerbaijan’s supply last year because of the fantastical undertaking of constructing Nabucco. Everyone understood that there was nothing to fill the pipe with, the article reads.
Still, now, as the article reads, Iran takes the floor with inexhaustible oil and gas reserves and as a key transit country. Iran disposes of the 10% of the reported global oil reserves and is the second country in the world after Russia with its natural gas reserves (15%).
The official representatives of Iran do not hide that they strive to enter the European market of oil and gas, as in the olden days. Let’s remember that the deputy Minister of Oil in Iran, Ali Majedi, offered to revive project of Nabucco pipeline during his European tour and said that his country is ready to supply gas to Europe through it, the publication reads.
“According to the project Nabucco, that pipeline will transfer around 31 billion cubic meters of gas. We repeat, Azerbaijani gas alone cannot fill that pipe. The main problem is that the potential of the Azerbaijani gas field Shah Deniz II is assessed no more than 8 billion cubic meters a year. That is why even if the Azerbaijani gas eventually comes to be supplied via Nabucco, there will be a deficit of 23 billion cubic meters a year,” the authors stress.
It is also noted that the West quite materially reacted to the possibility of the Iranian gas to join Nabucco.
“Some months earlier the same Ali Majedi reported sensational news: ‘two invited European delegations’ discussed the potential routes of Iranian gas supply to Europe,” the article reads.
The country that was the closest to sign an agreement on Nabucco, Azerbaijan, has not got enough gas reserves to fill the pipeline, the authors of the article write pointing to Iran’s possible participation in the project.
“If Washington removes energy sanctions on Iran after an ultimate agreement is signed between Iran and the West, then quite a new geopolitical and, alongside with it, geo-economic configuration will emerge in the region. Connecting with Nabucco will be enough for Iran to fully supply Europe with gas. With the removal of the sanctions on Iran the economic power, and alongside with that, Iran’s political influence will grow year by year,” the authors of the article highlight.
In an interview to the Azerbaijani media outlet Minval.az, orientalist Aida Gambar noted that Iran is working very actively in the Middle East region, and its main purpose is to become the leading country of the region.
“Iran is trying to carry out its ideological programme of creating a very large and significant Shia union which will be able to influence all the processes going on in the region,” she said.
The orientalist also noted that with the crisis in Syria, which affected very strongly the system of international relations, the center of gravity goes to Iran which enjoys the support of foreign large powers.
“There are many problems that the US foreign powers, EU leading countries need to settle down with Iran. They have already been able to solve and settle down quite a lot of problems, and it is obscure if a framework agreement is signed, what the strengthening status of Iran will be like, given the removal of some sanctions, how Iran will fortify its positions due to that. It is an unfavorable moment for Turkey and Azerbaijan,” she said.
Anton Yevstratov, an expert on Iran, told Minval.az that Azerbaijan is in a complicated situation completely backing US’s all the anti-Iran actions, actively provoking anti-Iran rhetoric inside the country and often splashing it also into the international relations.
“Azerbaijan could not orient at the latest stage and fell off the fairway of the US. The West seems to show signs of readiness to make friends with IRI, yet Baku goes on ‘waving its fists.’ And today no one supports Azerbaijan in that,” the expert on Iran highlighted.
Sargis Grigoryan: No fluctuation expected for the Russian-Turkish relations at present