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A representative of Ankara Policy Center Burcu Gültekin Punsmann answered the questions raised by the panorama.am during the on line conference with the Armenian news agencies. 

To our correspondent’s question on the possibility of a direct military clash as a result of the escalation in the relations between Russia and Turkey, the analyst answered that it depends on the further development in Syria.

“The Russia-Turkey crisis is not a bilateral crisis anymore. In case of Russian air forces maintains its activities in Aleppo plus day by day strengthening immigrants’ flow towards the Turkish board we can expect a much serious military escalation between the two countries. In fact, today NATO is mobilizing its forces on the board line between Turkey and Syria. We can also expect a growth in the tension between Russia and NATO as well as severing diplomatic relations,” noticed the analyst.

Answering the question connected with the truthfulness of buying oil from the “Islamic State” by means of smuggling and participation of Erdogan’s family in that business“

Punsmann said, “It does not matter. Throughout 2014 before the “Islamic State” had become the central player in the Syrian conflict, I worked in Ankara in the framework of international humanitarian mission. I witnessed the government struggling against smuggling. Those activities were far from being useful plus they were implied at a micro-level. Since then the possibility to have control over the border has significantly increased. Lately I heard that the trade of “Viagra” pills on the Turkey-Syria border has become a profitable business”.

To our correspondent’s remark on Turkey’s prohibition of the Kurds’ participation in the dialogue between conflicting parts within Syria (calling them terrorists) followed by a question concerning the possibility of resolving any conflict in Syria without the participation of the Kurds, the expert answered, “In fact, Russia is also against the participation of Kurds’ national army in Geneva negotiations. The Kurds must have their say in shaping Syria’s future. Actually, they will only win in being in a good relationship with Turkey. It was not long ago that Ankara officially hosted their leader. Currently, the Kurdistan regional government is on the third place in Turkish export industry after Germany and the Great Britain. It is also possible, that Iraqi Kurdistan will soon get its independence. Barzani is a wise leader”.

In reply to the question raised by panorama.am on how the tension between Russia and Turkey can affect the situation in the South Caucasus, the expert said, that at the moment the impact is minimal.

“I’d like to emphasize that both Georgia and Azerbaijan are behaving in a wise manner. It’s vital to have ways of connecting East to West. For the first time that way has received a commercial meaning. It is important that Turkey carry on considering Armenia an independent state and, most importantly, that Turkey does so due to the fact that Armenia clearly differentiates between its problems with Turkey and the dynamics of the Russia-Turkey crisis. The Armenians should maintain their relationships with the individuals in Turkey instead of being under Russia’s extreme control as well as not building relations with Turkey based on the relations between the Kurds and Turkey. ”