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The pattern of military escalation on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border and Line of Contact (LoC) around Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) since at least 2011 meant it should not have been the surprise it was when major fighting broke out on 2-5 April, reads  the newly released report by International Crisis Group (ICG) on  the escalation around Nagorno Karabakh conflict in early April, 2016.

According to the authors, in the latest escalation Azerbaijan seized small pieces of land, and up to 200 people on both sides were killed, while the publics in Armenia and Azerbaijan became  more ready for military solutions than at any time in 25 years.

“Russia sees itself as the regional arbiter which is bound to intervene, not least because of its tight treaty relations with Armenia. Besides mutual affinity based partly on ethnic kinship, Turkey has military cooperation, a critical energy partnership and close political and economic relations with Azerbaijan. It links normalisation of relations with Armenia, including reestablishment of diplomatic ties and opening of their border, – to progress on resolution of the conflict, “reads the report. 

The authors state that the regional context has changed profoundly in the last year, increasing the potential for wide fallout if fighting resumes. “Moscow’s and Ankara’s ties are strained. Iran is still defining its approach to the region but has flagged an interest in a greater role. Russia and the West remain at odds, with differences in Eastern Europe perhaps even greater than in Syria. Interests do align in pushing for progress on the NK conflict, but Moscow, which profiles itself as the key mediator and security guarantor, also seeks thereby to strengthen its strategic stake a region it considers a sphere of privileged interest, including by forging a closer relationship with Baku. Moreover, while Moscow has the political will and clout to drive the process, its regional role has been divisive, so it needs the other co-chairs to make the process genuinely credible. France and the U.S. should ensure this cooperation is indeed substantive.”

ISG experts state that the talks the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents agreed to on 16 May to pave the way for negotiations on a comprehensive settlement can be a chance to get a peace process back on track. However, the statement issued after the follow-on talks in St. Petersburg on 20 June suggest momentum might already be weakening. All the Minsk Group co-chairs should engage in the mediation effort at a senior political level in order to lend it the necessary weight and sense of urgency
The EU should continue to give its strong political support to the Minsk Group, including through its bilateral relations with Baku and Yerevan, and the leverage negotiation of new agreements with both can provide. the OSCE High Level Planning Group should step up preparatory work on a future peacekeeping force, including by exploring possible contributions. The ultimate product could range from deploying monitors drawn from the armed forces of member states to where the opposing armies face each other and civilians from the different ethnic communities live in proximity to each other, to substantial support for the local police.

Among recommendations to the Armenian and Azerbaijani leadership outlined by the ICG are making  the compromises that would make war less likely and bolster the long-term security of their peoples and observing the ceasefire strictly, refrain from provocative rhetoric and create a permanent channel of communication.

ISG experts also call on the Minsk Group co-chairs and other members, the EU and the OSCE CiO to prepare the sides for compromise by renewing efforts to encourage dialogue, stressing to the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaderships the importance of seizing the opportunity before them, asking for The OSCE CiO (Germany) to assist the Minsk Group (MG) co-chairs (France, Russia, the U.S.) with offers of practical support, including assistance with an investigative mechanism and an enhanced monitoring role for the CiO’s Special Representative, giving the work of the OSCE High Level Planning Group new impetus by considering modalities, including exploring offers of personnel for deployment of monitors, police and peacekeepers, capitalizing on the EU’s traditional strength and in the event peace talks lead to progress, the HR, actively supported by France and other EU members of the MG.
ICG experts also stress the US and EU should encourage Turkey to support the efforts of the MG co-chairs to make progress in peace negotiations on NK in its statements and actions. International actors stress Turkey should move toward normalizing its relations with Armenia, including by opening the borders, without preconditions.