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The Erdogan-Putin meeting held on 28 September certainly gave answers to numerous questions, shedding light on a number of facts of interest. However, the meeting also gave rise to new questions, which may be more clearly explained in the future in parallel to the development of the bilateral ties.

Panorama.am has talked to political analyst Styopa Safaryan, turkologist Hakob Chakryan and economist Vilen Khachatryan regarding the aforesaid issues.

Panorama.am: What regional developments do you predict following the recent Erdogan-Putin talks on the independence referendum held by Iraqi Kurdistan?

Styopa Safaryan: In general, it can be expected that Turkey has certain plans regarding both the Syrian and Kurdish issues: setting up de-escalation zones in Syria and receiving a chance of launching military operations against Kurdistan amid the Baghdad- Erbil conflict in Iraq. As a possible risk and development in the two directions, it can be pointed out to certain actions by Turkey or its proxies directed against the security of the Kurdish autonomy.

Panorama.am: Do the Turkish and Russian presidents voice their unified stance on these important political issues by reaffirming their support to the territorial integrity of Iraq and Syria?

Styopa Safaryan: Yes, during the joint press conference Turkey and Russia especially voiced their support to the preservation of the territorial integrity. In Russia’s case, the issue is related to Syria, whereas Turkey has, not by accident, reserved to itself the right to extend the joint statement on Iraq. In this respect, regardless the former strained relations between Baghdad and Ankara, they have become allies at the moment and Erdogan makes it clear that they can act as allies against the Kurdish independence. In terms of receiving support for the territorial integrity, Turkey is expected to soften its tough stance towards the Assad regime. Baghdad, in its turn, may not mention about the withdrawal of the Turkish military base from its territory for a while.

Panorama.am: It is known that Russia has confirmed receiving the advance payment for S-400 missile systems from Turkey. The systems will reportedly be delivered to Turkey within the coming two years. What can take place during this period and especially after the systems supplies to Turkey?

Turkologist Hakob Chakryan: If the sales process is finalized, Turkey's dependence on Russia will increase. However, the two years is a long period and many things can change during that time. Some ten years ago, Cyprus wanted to purchase S-300 systems from Russia. The contact was singed and the entire payment was completed. However, the EU and Greece interfered, persuading Cyprus to abandon its decision. Similar developments are also possible today, since I repeat myself that two years is quite a long period. It is hard to point out any regional shifts during that time or what kind of relations will be developed between Turkey and the EU. Thus, it should not be claimed that Russia has sold S-400 missile systems to Turkey. NATO is another means of influence. Being a NATO member, Turkey has no right to buy missiles from Russia. It is not ruled out that Russia will abandon the decision to acquire arms from Russia amid the pressure of certain [political] forces.

Panorama.am: How can the two major projects – 'Akkuyu' nuclear power plant and ‘Turkish Flow’ – affect the Turkish-Russian economic ties?

Economist Vilen Khachatryan: With its nuclear power plant, Armenia holds a strong position [in the Caucasus region], however the emergence of other power plants in the region can significantly weaken its position, including in terms of the electricity trade. Georgia can make use of the Turkish production, which is not beneficial to us and must be viewed as a weakening of Armenia's competitive position. Regarding the “Turkish Flow”, it is also a devious factor in itself. If Armenia had an open crossing to Turkey, the gas supply would not reach a deadlock here, but rather would continue its flow to Turkey. Amid the closure of [Armenia-Turkey] border, Armenia cannot effectively use its resources. In general, the implementation of the two projects is equally harmful to Armenia.