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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is keenly aware of the repercussions of an economic downturn on support for his government at March 31 local elections. Insiders say Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is concerned about losing control of the administration of Turkey’s capital Ankara at the polls, the Financial Times reported.

According to the source, banks are increasingly reluctant to lend and companies are struggling to repay some $285 billion of foreign currency debt, which has become more expensive after the lira lost almost a third of its value against the dollar last year. The economic contraction in Turkey could persist for more than a year, said Fatih Ozatay, a former governor of Turkey’s central bank, according to the FT.

The source quotes a Turkish executive, speaking anonymously, the government should outline an economic plan to reassure markets once the elections are over. No more elections are planned for four years, giving the government a wide window to enact reforms.

Turkey doesn’t have the money to spend its way out of its recession and any divergence from budget discipline promised by Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, Erdogan’s son-in-law, could be punished by investors.

The government, short on cash after a series of tax cuts, has yet to come up with such a plan. Insisting all is well is unlikely to satisfy nervous investors.

“The markets still have concerns around the banks’ balance sheets,” said Okan Akin, an emerging markets analyst at AllianceBernstein. “To restore confidence it is important to draw a line . . . to say: these are the problems, we’ve solved them and now they are in a position to start lending again.

“The easiest thing would be to just go to the IMF to talk to them on a technical level,” Akin said. “They don’t even have to make an agreement; just use them for some credibility.”

Erdogan has repeatedly said any IMF help is out of the question, leaving the country in a possible financial dilemma, the source concluded.