Analysis: Pashinyan-Putin call signals persistent Armenia-Russia rift

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 27 was the first between the two leaders since Armenia's June 7 parliamentary elections and highlighted the persistent strategic tensions overshadowing bilateral relations.

According to political analyst Suren Surenyants, the call was significant because it took place amid strained ties between Yerevan and Moscow and growing economic pressure stemming from restrictions on Armenian exports to the Russian market.

The conversation came after Pashinyan held separate calls with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on July 22 and French President Emmanuel Macron on July 25. Surenyants argues that those discussions appear to have yielded little progress in addressing Armenia's trade difficulties with Russia, leaving Yerevan with little choice but to seek direct engagement with Moscow.

According to the Armenian government's readout, Pashinyan raised the issue of restrictions on Armenian goods entering the Russian market, arguing that they run counter to both the bilateral legal framework governing Armenian-Russian relations and the principles of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). He urged Putin to help resolve the issue.

The Kremlin's account of the conversation, however, focused on a different issue altogether.

According to Moscow, Putin once again raised Armenia's European aspirations, reiterating the position reflected in the joint declaration adopted by the leaders of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan at the EAEU summit in Astana on May 29.

The Russian president stressed that Armenia should hold a nationwide referendum to determine its long-term geopolitical course, asking voters to decide whether the country intends to pursue European Union membership or remain committed to the EAEU.

Surenyants says Pashinyan effectively acknowledged that Armenia's EU accession ambitions remain at an early stage, noting that such a referendum could only take place after Armenia formally applies for EU membership.

Even that clarification, however, failed to produce any breakthrough. No announcements were made following the call regarding the easing or removal of restrictions on Armenian exports.

The Kremlin's statement did not mention the trade dispute at all, which Surenyants views as a clear indication that Moscow's strategic priorities continue to take precedence over Armenia's economic concerns.

He also points to another diplomatic signal. Putin has once again refrained from congratulating Pashinyan on his parliamentary election victory. In diplomatic practice, Surenyants argues, such omissions are seldom accidental and often carry political significance.

In the analyst's view, the conversation followed the same political trajectory established during the April 1 meeting between the two leaders and reinforced by the Astana declaration. He argues that Moscow is no longer willing to accommodate Yerevan's attempt to balance between Russia and the West.

He also notes that, under the Astana declaration, the EAEU Intergovernmental Council is expected to submit a report by December 2026 assessing the implications of suspending the application of the EAEU Treaty to Armenia. Surenyants describes this as evidence that the process has moved beyond political signalling and into a concrete policy framework.

Taken together, Surenyants argues, the telephone conversation did not mark a turning point in Armenia-Russia relations. Instead, it reinforced the depth of the strategic disagreements between the two countries, while highlighting that trade disputes have become one of the clearest manifestations of the broader political divide.

"Moscow is no longer looking for assurances," Surenyants said. "It expects Armenia to make a clear strategic choice."

For that reason, he said, the Russian phrase "Moscow Does Not Believe in Tears" best captures the political message conveyed by the latest conversation.